International migration is another factor that will influence the projected size of religious groups in various regions and countries. In the United States, for example, surveys find that some people who were raised with no religious affiliation have switched to become Christians, while some who grew up as Christians have switched World population projections become unaffiliated.
With each passing year, however, there is a chance that unforeseen events — war, famine, disease, technological innovation, political upheaval, etc. And, if so, when?
Because censuses and surveys in many countries do not provide information on religious subgroups — such as Sunni and Shia Muslims or Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Christians — the projections are for each religious group as a whole. Owing to the difficulty of peering more than a few decades into the future, the projections stop at The study projects the world population in to be 8.
India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.
For more information on how fertility shapes population growth, see Chapter 1. Beyond the Year This report describes how the global religious landscape would change if current demographic trends continue. As a result, according to the Pew Research projections, by there will be near parity between Muslims 2.
In some countries, it is fairly common for adults to leave their childhood religion and switch to another faith.
Globally, about 40 million people are projected to switch into Christianity, while million are projected to leave, with most joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated. India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.
Noble Kuriakose was involved in nearly all stages of the project and helped draft the chapter on demographic factors and the Methodology. Readers may wonder, though, what would happen to the population trajectories highlighted in this report if they were projected into the second half of this century.
In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in to two-thirds inand Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion.
If current trends continue, by … The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world. Over the past six years, a number of former Pew Research Center staff members also played critical roles in producing the population projections. For more information on how fertility shapes population growth, see Chapter 1.
Over the coming decades, Christians are expected to experience the largest net losses from switching. Over the same period, the number of Hindus in Europe is expected to roughly double, from a little under 1. And, if so, when? Religions with many adherents in developing countries — where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling — are likely to grow quickly.
But Nigeria also will continue to have a very large Christian population. If the projected Jewish numbers were expanded to include cultural or ethnic Jews, it is possible that the size of the more broadly defined Jewish population might be greater than the projected number of U.
The hypothetical feasibility and wide availability of life extension by technological means would further exacerbate the overpopulation problem.
While significant differences in life expectancy across major areas and income groups are projected to continue, they are expected to diminish significantly by Over the same period, the number of Hindus in Europe is expected to roughly double, from a little under 1.
Incensuses and surveys indicate, there were about 1. The impact of migration can be seen in the examples shown in the graph at the right, which compares projection scenarios with and without migration in the regions where it will have the greatest impact.
Population projections are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends, such as declining birth rates and rising life expectancies in particular countries.
In the projection model, all directions of switching are possible, and they may be partially offsetting. Muslims will be more numerous in the U. It starts with a population of baseline age groups, or cohorts, divided by sex and religion.
For more details, see the Methodology. The Pew Research Center consulted several scholars on this historical question.
In North America, the Hindu share of the population is expected to nearly double in the decades ahead, from 0. Bulliet, say it is possible that Muslims may have outnumbered Christians globally sometime between and C. In some countries, it is fairly common for adults to leave their childhood religion and switch to another faith.
The first chapter looks at the demographic factors that shape the projections, including sections on fertility rates, life expectancy, age structure, religious switching and migration.
About These Projections While many people have offered predictions about the future of religion, these are the first formal demographic projections using data on age, fertility, mortality, migration and religious switching for multiple religious groups around the world.Population growth estimates from the current year up to for the entire population of the world.
Max Roser () - "Future Population Growth". Why this happened becomes clearer if we look at the projections for the world fertility rate and global life expectancy. Estimates of the world population compared with the UN forecasts, since – Keilman () 8.
Apr 02, · In addition to making projections at the global level, this report projects religious change in countries and territories with at leastpeople as ofcovering % of the world’s population. rows · Projections of population growth established in predict that the human population is likely to keep growing untilreaching an estimated billion inThe median estimate for future growth sees the.
World Population Prospects World Population Projections The U.N. world population prospects data set depicts the U.N.’s projections for every country’s population, decade by decade through The revision was recently released, and I analyzed, visualized, and mapped the data (methodology and code described below).Download